致命性拥堵：温度、医疗服务利用与患者结果(Killer Congestion: Temperature, Healthcare Utilization and Patient Outcomes)

研究问题：本研究探讨了极端高温是否会通过增大医疗需求引发医院拥堵，从而对患者健康产生直接与间接的负面影响。  
主要结论：研究发现当日最高温度超过34℃时，急诊就诊增加约7.5%，住院人数增加约4%，并且医院拥堵导致额外死亡率显著上升，包括院内溢出效应和院外死亡的增加。  
研究贡献：该研究首次区分了极端高温对健康的直接生理效应与因医院拥堵产生的间接溢出效应，提出了通过加强医疗基础设施和改进应急管理以应对气候变化挑战的创新适应策略。

Extreme heat imperils health and results in more emergency department (ED) visits and hospitalizations. Since temperature affects many individuals within a region simultaneously, these health impacts could lead to surges in healthcare demand that generate hospital congestion. Climate change will only exacerbate these challenges. In this paper, we provide the first estimates of the health impacts from extreme heat that unpacks the direct effects from the indirect ones that arise due to hospital congestion. Using data from Mexico’s largest healthcare subsystem, we find that ED visits rise by 7.5% and hospitalizations by 4% given daily maximum temperatures above 34◦C. As a result, more (and sicker) ED patients are discharged home, and deaths within the hospital increase. While some of those hospital deaths can be directly attributed to extreme heat, our analysis suggests that approximately over half of these excess deaths can be viewed as spillover impacts due to hospital congestion. Additional analyses also reveal an increase in the share of deaths occurring outside hospitals, consistent with congestion-related health harms arising from the discharge of sicker patients from the ED. Our findings highlight an important new avenue of adaptation to climate change. If hospital congestion contributes to excess health damages from a changing climate, then expanding labor and capital investments and improving surge management tools can help reduce those damages.

论文原文：Sandra Aguilar-Gomez, Joshua S. Graff Zivin, Matthew J. Neidell, Killer Congestion: Temperature, Healthcare Utilization and Patient Outcomes, DOI---- 10.3386/w33491  

让隐形变为可见：揭示室内空气污染对行为和福利的影响(Making the Invisible Visible: The Impact of Revealing Indoor Air Pollution on Behavior and Welfare)

研究问题：本研究探讨了在伦敦Camden，通过实时反馈室内空气污染数据是否能促使居民改变态度与行为，从而降低室内PM2.5水平及改善健康与经济福利。  
主要结论：实验证据表明，实时污染反馈显著降低了室内PM2.5浓度（入住房间期间降低约34%），主要通过增加通风等预防性行为，并且增强了居民对空气质量风险的认知和其支付意愿。  
研究贡献：本研究利用大规模随机实验首次系统性地量化了室内空气污染的动态效应、居民行为变化以及经济评价（包括WTP和公共资金边际价值），为环境健康政策和公共补贴设计提供了坚实的实证依据。

Exposure to ambient air pollution has been shown to be detrimental to human health and productivity, and has motivated many policies to reduce such pollution. However, given that humans spend 90% of their time indoors, it is important to understand the degree of exposure to Indoor Air Pollution (IAP), and, if high, ways to reduce it. We design and implement a field experiment in London that monitors households’ IAP and then randomly reveals their IAP in real-time. At baseline, we find that IAP is worse than ambient air pollution when residents are at home and that for 38% of the time, IAP is above World Health Organization standards. Additionally, we observe a large household income-IAP gradient, larger than the income-ambient pollution gradient, highlighting large income disparities in IAP exposure. During our field experiment, we find that the randomized revelation reduces IAP by 17% (1.9 μg/m³) overall and 34% (5 μg/m³) during occupancy time. We show that the mechanism is households using more natural ventilation as a result of the feedback (i.e., opening up doors and windows). Finally, in terms of welfare, we find that： (i) households have a willingness to pay of £4.8 ($6) for every 1 μg/m ³ reduction in indoor PM2.5; (ii) households have a higher willingness to pay for mitigation than for full information; (iii) households have a price elasticity of IAP monitor demand around -0.75; and (iv) a £1 subsidy for an IAP monitor or an air purifier has an infinite marginal value of public funds, i.e., a Pareto improvement.

论文原文：Robert D. Metcalfe,Sefi Roth,，Making the Invisible Visible： The Impact of Revealing Indoor Air Pollution on Behavior and Welfare，DOI---- 10.3386/w33510  

气候转型风险与能源行业(Climate Transition Risks and the Energy Sector)

研究问题：本文探讨了气候转型风险（包括未来碳税、钻井限制以及可再生能源技术突破等）如何通过影响能源价格、库存决策和投资行为，进而作用于化石燃料与可再生能源企业的估值与运营决策。
主要结论：研究表明，不同类型的转型风险对当前与未来能源价格及企业表现具有异质性影响，例如钻井限制倾向于推高现期价格并提升已开发储备企业的估值，而碳税不确定性与可再生技术突破预期则引发企业在提取与投资上的复杂调整，导致价格反应呈非单调关系。
研究贡献：本研究通过构建二期一般均衡模型并结合基于高频新闻数据的实证检验，深化了对气候转型风险动态传导机制的理论理解，为政策制定和能源转型实践提供了定量分析和实证参考。

We build a general equilibrium model to study how climate transition risks affect energy prices and the valuations of different firms in the energy sector. We consider two types of fossil fuel firms： incumbents that have developed oil reserves they can extract today or tomorrow, and new entrants that must invest in exploration and drilling today to have reserves to potentially extract tomorrow. There are also renewable energy firms that produce emission-free energy but cannot currently serve non-electrifiable sectors of the economy. We analyze three sources of climate transition risk： (i) changes in the probability of a technological breakthrough that allows renewable energy firms to serve all economic sectors; (ii) changes in expected future taxes on carbon emissions; and (iii) restrictions on today's development of additional fossil fuel production capacity. We show that different transition risks—and, importantly, uncertainty about their realizations—have distinct effects on firms' decisions, on their valuations, and on equilibrium energy prices. We provide empirical support for the heterogeneous effects of different transition risks on energy prices and stock returns of firms in different energy sub-sectors.

论文原文：Viral V. Acharya, Stefano Giglio, Stefano Pastore, Johannes Stroebel, Zhenhao Tan, Tiffany Yong, Climate Transition Risks and the Energy Sector, DOI---- 10.3386/w33413  

不适当技术：来自全球农业的证据(Inappropriate Technology: Evidence from Global Agriculture)

研究问题：本文研究全球农业技术创新是否主要针对发达国家的生态条件，从而造成技术不适当，并导致低收入国家农业技术转移受阻及生产率差异。
主要结论：实证结果表明，作物病虫害环境的生态不匹配显著降低了技术跨国转移和农业产出，估计技术不适当性导致全球农业生产率降低约58%并加剧产品率分布差距约15%。
研究贡献：该研究创新性地构建了衡量生态不匹配的新指标，并将理论模型与全球数据相结合，深入揭示了技术不适当性在全球农业生产率差异中的决定性作用，为制定更具针对性的农业研发和转移政策提供了实证依据。

An influential explanation for global productivity differences is that frontier technologies are adapted to the high-income countries that develop them and "inappropriate" elsewhere. We study this hypothesis in agriculture using data on novel plant varieties, patents, output, and the global range of crop pests and pathogens. Innovation focuses on the environmental conditions of technology leaders, and ecological mismatch with these markets reduces technology transfer and production. Combined with a model, our estimates imply that inappropriate technology explains 15-20% of cross-country agricultural productivity differences and re-shapes the potential consequences of innovation policy, the rise of new technology leaders, and environmental change.

论文原文：Jacob Moscona, Karthik A. Sastry, Inappropriate Technology: Evidence from Global Agriculture, DOI---- 10.3386/w33500  

雇员中的道德风险：基于回归不连续性方法的证据(Moral Hazard among the Employed: Evidence from Regression Discontinuity)

研究问题：本研究探讨了失业保险中潜在救济期限和救济水平的政策设计如何影响劳动力市场表现及就业者的道德风险问题。  
主要结论：研究发现，延长失业救济期限和提高救济水平均会延长失业持续时间，但提高救济水平对失业流入及就业者道德风险的扭曲效应尤为显著，且两者相互作用会进一步加剧这些效应。  
研究贡献：本文运用回归不连续性设计和详尽的行政数据，首次实证揭示了失业保险不同政策参数间相互作用对劳动力市场行为及社会福利的影响，为优化失业保险制度提供了新的理论与政策参考。

We exploit policy discontinuities in Poland's unemployment insurance to examine the causal effect of changes to both benefit durations and levels. Using a regression discontinuity approach, we uncover three findings： (1) Higher benefit levels distort employment more than benefit extensions. (2) Benefit durations and levels interact： Longer durations substantially increase the distortionary effect of more generous payments. (3) Higher payments increase the transition of employed workers into unemployment. We develop a model of optimal unemployment insurance that accounts for moral hazard among both employed and unemployed workers. Notably, for level increases, distortionary costs are larger among the employed than unemployed.

论文原文：Jonas Jessen,Robin Jessen,Andrew C. Johnston,Ewa Gałecka-Burdziak,，Moral Hazard among the Employed： Evidence from Regression Discontinuity，DOI---- 10.3386/w33450  

躲过零日：开普敦的干旱、适应与不平等(Dodging Day Zero: Drought, Adaptation, and Inequality in Cape Town)

研究问题：本研究探讨了在干旱危机下，城市如何通过政策调整和私人适应（例如钻井获取地下水）来应对公共水供给受限以及其对收入分配和资源成本结构的影响。
主要结论：研究发现，富裕家庭更倾向于采用私有化适应措施，从而导致公共水需求和水务收入下降，并引发成本向低收入家庭转嫁，而适当的政策干预（如设置固定收费和调整免费水额度）可以部分缓解这种不均衡效应。
研究贡献：本文通过构建理论模型并结合详细的行政和遥感数据，实证分析了气候适应措施对公共水务定价、收入再分配和可持续管理的长期影响，为制定应对城市水危机的政策提供了新的理论和实证依据。

A near-catastrophic drought in Cape Town, South Africa illustrates three general implications of climate change for publicly-provided utility services. First, to reduce aggregate water demand, the public utility increased prices, leading to large demand reductions by richer households. Prior to the drought they use twice the public piped water of poorer households. At the peak of the drought, they use less. Second, some of the differential demand reduction comes from richer households substituting away from public water toward privately financed groundwater.  This private adaptation both lowers the public utility's total revenue and shifts costs onto poorer households, consequences that persist after the drought abates.  Third, policy interventions mitigate some of the fiscal and distributional impacts of private adaptation. These findings highlight how climate adaptation, in the context of publicly provided goods and services, can create pecuniary and environmental externalities with equity consequences.

论文原文：Alexander C. Abajian,Cassandra Cole,Kelsey Jack,Kyle C. Meng,Martine Visser,，Dodging Day Zero： Drought, Adaptation, and Inequality in Cape Town，DOI---- 10.3386/w33468  

企业薪酬与工人搜索(Firm Pay and Worker Search)

研究问题：本研究探讨了德国全职员工对不同企业薪酬预期的认知如何影响其求职行为和岗位转换决策，尤其关注工人是否认为不同企业提供差异化的薪酬以及这种认知对其求职动机的具体作用。
主要结论：研究发现，多数工人认为各企业存在显著的薪酬异质性，并倾向于根据所期望获得的更高薪酬定向求职，但由于较高的转换成本和工作依附性，即便面对较大薪酬优势，大部分工人仍不轻易跳槽。
研究贡献：该研究通过大规模问卷与行政数据的整合，提供了企业特定薪酬预期与劳动市场求职行为之间关系的实证证据，并揭示了转换成本与非薪酬因素在解释工人岗位稳定性和异地流动中的关键作用，为劳动市场理论与政策制定提供了新视角。

Whether and how workers search on the job depends on their beliefs about pay and working conditions in other firms. Yet little is known about workers' knowledge of outside pay. We use a large-scale survey of full-time German workers, linked to their Social Security records, to elicit pay expectations and preferences over specific outside firms. Workers believe that they face considerable heterogeneity in their outside pay options, and direct their search toward firms they believe would pay them more. Workers' expected firm-specific pay premia are highly correlated with pay policies observed in administrative records and with workers' valuations of firm-specific amenities. Most workers are unwilling to search for a new job—or leave their current firm—even for substantial pay increases. Switching costs are equivalent to 7 to 18% of a worker’s annual pay. Attachment varies across firms, and cannot be explained by either differences in firm-specific amenities or switching costs.

论文原文：Sydnee Caldwell,Ingrid Haegele,Jörg Heining,，Firm Pay and Worker Search，DOI---- 10.3386/w33445  

空气中铅的隐性代价：工业铅污染对婴儿死亡率的影响(The Hidden Toll of Airborne Lead: Infant Mortality Impacts of Industrial Lead Pollution)

研究问题：本研究探讨了工业逸散铅排放如何通过影响空气中铅浓度，从而对婴儿死亡率产生因果效应。  
主要结论：研究发现，较高的空气铅浓度显著增加了新生儿及一岁内婴儿的死亡率，主要表现在低体重、新生儿猝死（SUID）、呼吸和神经系统疾病等方面，并且铅排放的降低有效挽救了婴儿生命，带来了巨大的经济效益。  
研究贡献：本研究利用创新的工具变量方法，在控制回避行为、遗漏变量偏差和测量误差的同时，首次在现代医疗条件下提供了工业逸散铅排放对婴儿死亡率影响的因果实证证据，为相关政策制定和理论研究提供了重要依据。

This paper uses U.S. Toxic Release Inventory data on air lead emissions to provide IV estimates of the effects of air lead concentration on infant mortality. The causal effect of lead on infant mortality is identified by annual variation in air fugitive lead emissions interacted with wind speed near reporting plants, which together determine local ambient lead concentration. Unlike stack emissions, which occur routinely and may prompt avoidance behavior, fugitive emissions are intermittent and influenced by both historical and current factors, such as wind speed variation, making them difficult to avoid. The paper has two main findings. First, higher air lead concentration causes higher infant mortality in the first month and in the first year, suggesting that both in utero and environmental exposures matter. Second, higher lead concentration increases deaths from low birthweight, sudden unexplained infant death (SUID), and respiratory and nervous system causes, which is consistent with findings from animal studies, even when accounting for behavioral responses. Back of the envelope calculations indicate that declines in fugitive lead emissions prevented 34-59 infant deaths per year, generating benefits of $380-$670 million annually in 2023 dollars.

论文原文：Karen Clay,Edson R. Severnini,Xiao Wang,，The Hidden Toll of Airborne Lead： Infant Mortality Impacts of Industrial Lead Pollution，DOI---- 10.3386/w33447  

管理者到底在做些什么？——经济学家的视角(What Do Managers Do? An Economist's Perspective)

研究问题： 本研究探讨了管理者在不同生产技术背景下，通过招聘、培训、激励、监督等多维活动如何为企业创造价值的问题。
主要结论： 研究发现，管理者的行为显著受制于所在环境的技术特性、其独特技能组合和激励机制，不同类型的管理者（如人员管理者与项目管理者）在价值创造路径和效应上存在显著差异。
研究贡献： 本文整合理论模型、实证研究和描述性分析，构建了一套基于技术、技能和自利原则的管理者行为框架，为理解管理者如何影响企业绩效提供了新的理论视角和实证证据。

Economic activity, when sufficiently ambitious, requires motivating and coordinating individuals to work toward a common goal. These aims are the purview of managers. What, however, do managers actually do? We outline three defining principles of economic research on managers and relate them to the set of skills reported by managers on LinkedIn. We highlight “managers of people” and “managers of projects” as a useful distinction for categorizing theoretical, empirical, and descriptive accounts of managers. In light of our three principles, we review research on how managers can create value— namely, by hiring, retaining, training, monitoring, evaluating, allocating, and supervising. We propose that managers apply these skills in different proportions depending on the production technology in which they are embedded and that research on managers should seek to produce generalizable insights by exploring managers’ contributions in different contexts.

论文原文：Alan M. Benson,Kathryn L. Shaw,，What Do Managers Do? An Economist's Perspective，DOI---- 10.3386/w33431  

环境政策中的地域尺度问题：美国环保署在《清洁空气法》下由区域向县级的转变(Geographic Resolution in Environmental Policy: EPA's Shift from Regions to Counties Under the Clean Air Act)

研究问题：本文探讨了在美国清洁空气法框架下，将非达标状态的判定从跨县空气群（AQCR）转向逐县级别对空气污染（TSP水平）和制造业就业影响的效果及其内在机制。  

主要结论：研究发现，采用县级划分的非达标判定在1978年后显著降低了空气中悬浮颗粒物浓度（下降6～7 µg/m³）并伴随污染密集型制造业就业比例的明显下降，而在AQCR阶段则未检测到类似的因果效应。  

研究贡献：本文通过准实验设计和差分法比较不同地理分辨率下环境治理效果，为环境政策地理界定对空气污染减排及区域经济影响的实证研究提供了新的证据和政策启示。

A large literature uses nonattainment status under the U.S. Clean Air Act (CAA) to measure regulatory stringency and to instrument for air pollution in studies of the impact of the CAA on health and other endpoints. Since 1978 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has regulated ambient air quality at the county level; however, prior to 1978 nonattainment status was imposed on Air Quality Control Regions, contiguous counties that comprise an airshed. This is not the definition of nonattainment used in the literature. Using county-level data, we examine the impacts of EPA’s definition of nonattainment status for TSP, CO, ozone, and SO2 in 1972 on ambient air quality and manufacturing employment between 1969 and 1976 and EPA’s definition of nonattainment in 1978 on air quality and manufacturing employment between 1975 and 1988. Nonattainment status in 1972 had no significant impact on either ambient TSP or on the ratio of dirty manufacturing to total employment between 1969 and 1976. We do, however, find significant impacts on ambient TSP using 1978 nonattainment status, and significant impacts of TSP, CO, ozone and SO2 nonattainment in 1978 on the fraction of employment in dirty manufacturing industries from 1975 to 1988. We discuss the implications of these findings for EPA’s decision regarding the geographic level at which to regulate air pollution.

论文原文：Maureen L. Cropper,Mengjia Hu,Yongjoon Park,Nicholas Z. Muller,，Geographic Resolution in Environmental Policy： EPA's Shift from Regions to Counties Under the Clean Air Act，DOI---- 10.3386/w33412  

数字技术对劳动力市场的影响(The Labor Market Impact of Digital Technologies)

研究问题：本研究探讨了新兴数字技术（人工智能、大数据和物联网）对韩国各行业、不同技能水平及性别群体劳动市场就业和职位空缺的影响及其机制。  
主要结论：研究发现，数字技术的采用显著降低了高技能及女性工人的就业水平，尤其在非IT服务业中表现明显，而在IT服务业则伴随新技能岗位需求的上升，表明数字化转型既带来劳动力替代效应，又创造了新的就业机会。  
研究贡献：本研究利用地区间数字技术暴露的差异化冲击，通过实证分析细化了数字技术在不同产业和职业层面对劳动市场的异质性影响，为制定针对性就业政策和技能培训措施提供了新的理论与数据支持。

We investigate the impact of digital technology on employment patterns in Korea, where firms have rapidly adopted digital technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI), big data, and the internet of things (IoT). By exploiting regional variations in technology exposure, we find significant negative effects on high-skill and female workers, particularly those in non-IT (information technology) services. This contrasts with previous technological disruptions, such as the IT revolution and robotization, which primarily affected low-skill male workers in manufacturing. In IT services, although high-skill employment declined, vacancy postings for high-skill workers increased, implying a shift in labor demand toward newer skill sets. These findings highlight both the labor displacement and the new opportunities generated by digital transformation.

论文原文：Sangmin Aum,Yongseok Shin,，The Labor Market Impact of Digital Technologies，DOI---- 10.3386/w33469  

家庭职业投资与企业晋升决策(Families’ Career Investments and Firms’ Promotion Decisions)

研究问题：本文探讨了家庭决策与企业内部人力资本投资如何相互作用，以形成和加剧管理层职位上的性别差距，并分析不同政策（如父母带薪休假和经理配额）在缩小这一差距中的潜在效果。  
主要结论：研究发现，虽然初始性别差异较小，但家庭中的劳动力分工与企业在培训及晋升决策上的信息偏见相互强化，使得女性在管理晋升上处于不利地位，而政策干预（如均等化父母休假和实施经理配额）可部分改善性别不平等，但伴随不同的福利分布效应。  
研究贡献：本文构建并估计了一个整合婚姻市场、家庭决策及企业内部晋升机制的生命周期模型，为理解管理层性别不平等的动态生成机制提供了理论创新和实证依据，同时对制定更为有效的平等政策提出了启示。

This paper studies how family and firm investments interact to explain gender gaps in career achievement. Using Danish administrative data, we first document novel evidence of this interaction through a “spousal effect” on firm-side career investments. This effect is accounted for by family labor supply choices that shape worker characteristics, which then influence firms’ training and promotion decisions. Our main theoretical contribution is to develop a quantitative life cycle model that captures these family-firm interactions through household formation, families’ joint career and fertility choices, and firms’ managerial training and promotion decisions. We then use the estimated model to show that the interaction between families and firms in the joint equilibrium of labor and marriage markets is important when evaluating firm-side and family-side policy interventions. We find that gender-equal parental leave and a managerial quota can both improve gender equality, but leave implies costly skill depreciation, whereas the quota raises aggregate welfare, in part through adjustments in marital sorting towards families that invest in women.

论文原文：Frederik Almar,Benjamin Friedrich,Ana Reynoso,Bastian Schulz,Rune M. Vejlin,，Families’ Career Investments and Firms’ Promotion Decisions，DOI---- 10.3386/w33438  

人工智能与欧洲女性就业(AI and Women's Employment in Europe)

研究问题：本研究探讨了人工智能技术扩散对欧洲16个国家不同行业中女性就业比例变化的影响及其与教育水平和劳动参与度相关的差异性问题。  
主要结论：研究结果表明，职业中较高的AI暴露程度显著提升了女性就业比例，并且这种正向效应在女性初始教育水平较高和劳动参与率较高的国家中更为明显。  
研究贡献：本研究通过构建基于跨国职业数据的AI暴露指标，为理解新一代技术对性别就业结构的影响提供了新的实证证据，并拓展了科技创新与劳动市场性别平等研究的理论和实证视野。

We examine the link between the diffusion of artificial intelligence (AI) enabled technologies and changes in the female employment share  in 16 European countries over the period 2011-2019. Using data for occupations at the 3-digit level, we find that on average female employment shares  increased in occupations more exposed to AI.   Countries with high initial female labor force participation and higher initial female relative education show a stronger positive association. While there exists heterogeneity across countries, almost all show a positive relation between changes in female employment shares within occupations and exposure to AI-enabled automation.

论文原文：Stefania Albanesi,António Dias da Silva,Juan F. Jimeno,Ana Lamo,Alena Wabitsch,，AI and Women's Employment in Europe，DOI---- 10.3386/w33451  

ESG 是最具争议性的非工资福利：来自巴西一项实地实验的证据(ESG Is The Most Polarizing Nonwage Amenity: Evidence from a Field Experiment in Brazil)

研究问题：本研究探讨了求职者对非货币福利中环境、社会及治理（ESG）实践的偏好差异，并检验了ESG是否在劳动力市场中比其他非货币福利更具两极分化效应。  
主要结论：研究发现，求职者普遍偏好具有良好ESG实践的企业，但这一偏好在受教育程度高、种族为白人及政治倾向自由的群体中表现得尤为明显，且相较于其他非货币福利，ESG呈现出更强的分化效应。  
研究贡献：本研究通过一项激励性实地实验，利用随机设计和真实求职者数据，提供了有关非货币福利中ESG实践偏好异质性的重要实证证据，为理解企业文化对劳动力市场分配效果的影响提供了新的理论和实证支持。

We examine job-seekers' heterogeneous preferences for nonwage amenities, with a focus on environmental, social, and governance (ESG) practices, using an incentivized field experiment in Brazil. Our findings reveal that ESG is the most polarizing nonwage amenity across multiple sociodemographic groups, with the strongest preferences observed among highly educated, white, and politically liberal individuals (Colonnelli et al., 2025). While women report a stronger preference for work-from-home policies, all other nonwage amenities exhibit minimal variation across sociodemographic groups. Our findings highlight the critical role of corporate values in shaping economic outcomes within an increasingly polarized society.

论文原文：Emanuele Colonnelli,Timothy McQuade,Gabriel Ramos,Thomas Rauter,Olivia Xiong,，ESG Is The Most Polarizing Nonwage Amenity： Evidence from a Field Experiment in Brazil，DOI---- 10.3386/w33455